Spreadsheet Sports Hockey / Players / Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo SabresGoalieage 276′5″, 223 lbcatches leftdrafted 2017, #54 overall

Workload1B / Backup2025-26

Scouting summaryElite danger saves, strong shot stopping; workload is the softest area (40).

2025-26 · regular seasonBUF

2026-27 so far: 8 GP · 3 W · .864 SV%

35GP

22W

.910SV%

2.52GAA

1SO

34GS

930SA

+8.9GSAx

Season

At a glance · 2025-26 · 35 GP · 2,028 min · BUF

Category scores

0–99 percentile vs every qualified goalie. Tap a row to see the numbers behind it.

Shot stopping76Strong Danger saves91Elite Workload40Average

Shot stopping

Goals saved compared with what our expected-goals model says an average goalie allows on the same shots

76Strong

MetricValuePercentile

Goals saved above expectedGSAx

+8.9

Save % vs expecteddSV%

+0.95

GSAx per 60GSAx/60

+0.26

Save %SV%not graded

.910

Goalie numbers swing a lot from one season to the next (year-to-year r of about 0.1 to 0.2 for every goalie stat, ours or the plain save %). Read these scores as one season's form, not a forecast.

How our expected goals work

Shot stopping leaders

Danger saves

Save percentage on low-, medium- and high-danger shots (danger = our xG)

91Elite

MetricValuePercentile

High-danger save %HD SV%raw .794 on 97 shots

.785

Medium-danger save %MD SV%raw .870 on 399 shots

.868

Low-danger save %LD SV%raw .970 on 433 shots

.970

Danger tiers come from our expected-goals model: low under 5%, medium 5–15%, high 15%+ chance to score.

Danger saves leaders

Workload

How much he plays and how hard the shots are

40Average

MetricValuePercentile

Games playedGP

Games startedGS

MinutesMIN

2,028

Shot difficulty facedxGA/60style

2.78

Shots faced per 60SA/60style

27.5

Workload leaders

Similar goalies · 2025-26

Plays like

Closest matches on the category scores plus style (shot difficulty and volume faced), same season, same position group.

87% matchAnton ForsbergLAK · G · 1B / Backup 82% matchCasey DeSmithDAL · G · 1B / Backup 80% matchConnor IngramEDM · G · 1B / Backup 78% matchJoel HoferSTL · G · Workhorse Tandem 74% matchAlex LyonBUF · G · 1B / Backup

At a glance · 2024-25 · 55 GP · 3,172 min · BUF

Category scores

0–99 percentile vs every qualified goalie. Tap a row to see the numbers behind it.

Shot stopping14Weak Danger saves16Weak Workload79Strong

Shot stopping

Goals saved compared with what our expected-goals model says an average goalie allows on the same shots

14Weak

MetricValuePercentile

Goals saved above expectedGSAx

−17.6

Save % vs expecteddSV%

−1.18

GSAx per 60GSAx/60

−0.33

Save %SV%not graded

.887

Goalie numbers swing a lot from one season to the next (year-to-year r of about 0.1 to 0.2 for every goalie stat, ours or the plain save %). Read these scores as one season's form, not a forecast.

How our expected goals work

Shot stopping leaders

Danger saves

Save percentage on low-, medium- and high-danger shots (danger = our xG)

16Weak

MetricValuePercentile

High-danger save %HD SV%raw .721 on 183 shots

.726

Medium-danger save %MD SV%raw .842 on 612 shots

.843

Low-danger save %LD SV%raw .970 on 695 shots

.970

Danger tiers come from our expected-goals model: low under 5%, medium 5–15%, high 15%+ chance to score.

Danger saves leaders

Workload

How much he plays and how hard the shots are

79Strong

MetricValuePercentile

Games playedGP

Games startedGS

MinutesMIN

3,172

Shot difficulty facedxGA/60style

2.86

Shots faced per 60SA/60style

28.2

Workload leaders

Similar goalies · 2024-25

Plays like

Closest matches on the category scores plus style (shot difficulty and volume faced), same season, same position group.

88% matchJeremy SwaymanBOS · G · Starter 84% matchElvis MerzlikinsCBJ · G · Starter 76% matchAlexandar GeorgievSJS · G · Workhorse Tandem 76% matchJuuse SarosNSH · G · Starter 72% matchTristan JarryPIT · G · Workhorse Tandem

How every number is calculated

Percentiles (0–100) rank him against every goalie with 1,200+ minutes that season (61 in 2025-26). Tiers: Elite 90+ · Strong 70–89 · Average 40–69 · Below avg 20–39 · Weak 0–19. Roles are simple rules applied in order; the first one that fits wins. Expected goals and RAPM, explained and backtested

Shot stopping: Goals saved compared with what our expected-goals model says an average goalie allows on the same shots. Category score = weighted average of the graded metrics' percentiles in that category, re-ranked 0-99 against every qualified skater (or every skater in his position group when 'vs position' is on). Style numbers (weight 0) are shown but not graded.
GSAxGoals saved above expected: Expected goals faced minus goals allowed, season total. +10 is excellent. How: Sum of our xG on every unblocked, non-empty-net shot he faced − goals allowed on them.
dSV%Save % vs expected: Save percentage minus the save percentage an average goalie would post on his shots, in percentage points. How: GSAx ÷ shots on goal faced × 100.
GSAx/60GSAx per 60: Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. How: GSAx ÷ time on ice × 60.
SV%Save %: Plain save percentage. Shown, not graded: it ignores how hard the shots were. How: Saves ÷ shots on goal (NHL). Shown, not graded.
Danger saves: Save percentage on low-, medium- and high-danger shots (danger = our xG). Category score = weighted average of the graded metrics' percentiles in that category, re-ranked 0-99 against every qualified skater (or every skater in his position group when 'vs position' is on). Style numbers (weight 0) are shown but not graded.
HD SV%High-danger save %: Save % on shots our model rates 15%+ to score, volume-adjusted. How: (HD saves + 40 × league HD SV%) ÷ (HD shots + 40). Raw in the note.
MD SV%Medium-danger save %: Save % on shots rated 5–15% to score, volume-adjusted. How: Same adjustment, 40 league-average shots added.
LD SV%Low-danger save %: Save % on shots rated under 5% to score, volume-adjusted. How: Same adjustment, 40 league-average shots added.
Workload: How much he plays and how hard the shots are. Category score = weighted average of the graded metrics' percentiles in that category, re-ranked 0-99 against every qualified skater (or every skater in his position group when 'vs position' is on). Style numbers (weight 0) are shown but not graded.
GPGames played: Games he appeared in. How: NHL games played.
GSGames started: Games he started. How: NHL games started.
MINMinutes: Minutes played. How: NHL time on ice.
xGA/60Shot difficulty faced: Expected goals he faced per 60 minutes: how dangerous the shots were. A style number, not graded. How: Our xG on unblocked shots faced ÷ time on ice × 60. Style number, not graded.
SA/60Shots faced per 60: Shots on goal faced per 60 minutes. A style number. How: NHL shots against ÷ time on ice × 60. Style number, not graded.
Goalie roles: Starter Started 50+ games.
Workhorse Tandem Started 35–49 games.
1B / Backup Started fewer than 35 games.

Model verdicts

Sabres Cup odds1.4% · #13 of 32

Season by season · regular season