Who wins
the Hart?
A preseason MVP model, backtested on 41 seasons using only what was known on opening night, then the 2026-27 season simulated 10,000 times. It never sees a 2026-27 game.
2027 Hart odds
Share of the 10,000 simulated seasons each player won the Hart. Markets = the preseason betting price with the bookmaker margin removed.
Five versions of the model
Each version was backtested on every season since 1985 before it was allowed to predict 2027. Top three at each step:
How the model works
V1 · Last year's ballot
Copies last season's Hart voting.
V2 · The best player
Projects every player from his last three seasons (weighted 3-2-1, with an age curve) and scores him on what Hart voters reward.
V3 · + Team success
Projects every team. MVPs almost always come from playoff teams.
V4 · + Chaos
Simulates the season 10,000 times with career years, injuries, team swings and voter noise.
V5 · The lab
Keeps only the ideas that survived the backtest: stars stay healthier, age 33+, last year's Cup finalists and Presidents' Trophy team, position, and the vote split between two Hart-level teammates.