Spreadsheet Sports Hockey / Players / Alex Lyon

Alex Lyon

Buffalo SabresGoalieage 336′1″, 199 lbcatches left

Workload1B / Backup2025-26

Scouting summaryBest at shot stopping (80) and danger saves (78); workload is the softest area (42).

2025-26 · regular seasonBUF

36GP

20W

.907SV%

2.77GAA

3SO

34GS

979SA

+9.3GSAx

Season

Small sample. Only 1,992 minutes (36 games) in 2025-26. Treat these percentiles as rough.

At a glance · 2025-26 · 36 GP · 1,992 min · BUF

Category scores

0–99 percentile vs every qualified goalie. Tap a row to see the numbers behind it.

Shot stopping80Strong Danger saves78Strong Workload42Average

Shot stopping

Goals saved compared with what our expected-goals model says an average goalie allows on the same shots

80Strong

MetricValuePercentile

Goals saved above expectedGSAx

+9.3

Save % vs expecteddSV%

+0.95

GSAx per 60GSAx/60

+0.28

Save %SV%not graded

.907

Goalie numbers swing a lot from one season to the next (year-to-year r of about 0.1 to 0.2 for every goalie stat, ours or the plain save %). Read these scores as one season's form, not a forecast.

How our expected goals work

Shot stopping leaders

Danger saves

Save percentage on low-, medium- and high-danger shots (danger = our xG)

78Strong

MetricValuePercentile

High-danger save %HD SV%raw .777 on 121 shots

.773

Medium-danger save %MD SV%raw .858 on 408 shots

.858

Low-danger save %LD SV%raw .984 on 451 shots

.983

Danger tiers come from our expected-goals model: low under 5%, medium 5–15%, high 15%+ chance to score.

Danger saves leaders

Workload

How much he plays and how hard the shots are

42Average

MetricValuePercentile

Games playedGP

Games startedGS

MinutesMIN

1,992

Shot difficulty facedxGA/60style

3.05

Shots faced per 60SA/60style

29.5

Workload leaders

Similar goalies · 2025-26

Plays like

Closest matches on the category scores plus style (shot difficulty and volume faced), same season, same position group.

85% matchJesper WallstedtMIN · G · 1B / Backup 80% matchJoel HoferSTL · G · Workhorse Tandem 79% matchJake AllenNJD · G · Workhorse Tandem 79% matchJakub DobesMTL · G · Workhorse Tandem 75% matchJustus AnnunenNSH · G · 1B / Backup

Small sample. Only 1,560 minutes (30 games) in 2024-25. Treat these percentiles as rough.

At a glance · 2024-25 · 30 GP · 1,560 min · DET

Category scores

0–99 percentile vs every qualified goalie. Tap a row to see the numbers behind it.

Shot stopping42Average Danger saves58Average Workload21Below avg

Shot stopping

Goals saved compared with what our expected-goals model says an average goalie allows on the same shots

42Average

MetricValuePercentile

Goals saved above expectedGSAx

−1.1

Save % vs expecteddSV%

−0.15

GSAx per 60GSAx/60

−0.04

Save %SV%not graded

.896

Goalie numbers swing a lot from one season to the next (year-to-year r of about 0.1 to 0.2 for every goalie stat, ours or the plain save %). Read these scores as one season's form, not a forecast.

How our expected goals work

Shot stopping leaders

Danger saves

Save percentage on low-, medium- and high-danger shots (danger = our xG)

58Average

MetricValuePercentile

High-danger save %HD SV%raw .787 on 80 shots

.773

Medium-danger save %MD SV%raw .859 on 297 shots

.859

Low-danger save %LD SV%raw .957 on 327 shots

.959

Danger tiers come from our expected-goals model: low under 5%, medium 5–15%, high 15%+ chance to score.

Danger saves leaders

Workload

How much he plays and how hard the shots are

21Below avg

MetricValuePercentile

Games playedGP

Games startedGS

MinutesMIN

1,560

Shot difficulty facedxGA/60style

2.77

Shots faced per 60SA/60style

27.1

Workload leaders

Similar goalies · 2024-25

Plays like

Closest matches on the category scores plus style (shot difficulty and volume faced), same season, same position group.

91% matchDan VladarCGY · G · 1B / Backup 90% matchAnton ForsbergOTT · G · 1B / Backup 80% matchIlya SamsonovVGK · G · 1B / Backup 76% matchThatcher DemkoVAN · G · 1B / Backup 73% matchSpencer KnightCHI · G · Workhorse Tandem

How every number is calculated

Percentiles (0–100) rank him against every goalie with 1,200+ minutes that season (61 in 2025-26). Tiers: Elite 90+ · Strong 70–89 · Average 40–69 · Below avg 20–39 · Weak 0–19. Roles are simple rules applied in order; the first one that fits wins. Expected goals and RAPM, explained and backtested

Shot stopping: Goals saved compared with what our expected-goals model says an average goalie allows on the same shots. Category score = weighted average of the graded metrics' percentiles in that category, re-ranked 0-99 against every qualified skater (or every skater in his position group when 'vs position' is on). Style numbers (weight 0) are shown but not graded.
GSAxGoals saved above expected: Expected goals faced minus goals allowed, season total. +10 is excellent. How: Sum of our xG on every unblocked, non-empty-net shot he faced − goals allowed on them.
dSV%Save % vs expected: Save percentage minus the save percentage an average goalie would post on his shots, in percentage points. How: GSAx ÷ shots on goal faced × 100.
GSAx/60GSAx per 60: Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. How: GSAx ÷ time on ice × 60.
SV%Save %: Plain save percentage. Shown, not graded: it ignores how hard the shots were. How: Saves ÷ shots on goal (NHL). Shown, not graded.
Danger saves: Save percentage on low-, medium- and high-danger shots (danger = our xG). Category score = weighted average of the graded metrics' percentiles in that category, re-ranked 0-99 against every qualified skater (or every skater in his position group when 'vs position' is on). Style numbers (weight 0) are shown but not graded.
HD SV%High-danger save %: Save % on shots our model rates 15%+ to score, volume-adjusted. How: (HD saves + 40 × league HD SV%) ÷ (HD shots + 40). Raw in the note.
MD SV%Medium-danger save %: Save % on shots rated 5–15% to score, volume-adjusted. How: Same adjustment, 40 league-average shots added.
LD SV%Low-danger save %: Save % on shots rated under 5% to score, volume-adjusted. How: Same adjustment, 40 league-average shots added.
Workload: How much he plays and how hard the shots are. Category score = weighted average of the graded metrics' percentiles in that category, re-ranked 0-99 against every qualified skater (or every skater in his position group when 'vs position' is on). Style numbers (weight 0) are shown but not graded.
GPGames played: Games he appeared in. How: NHL games played.
GSGames started: Games he started. How: NHL games started.
MINMinutes: Minutes played. How: NHL time on ice.
xGA/60Shot difficulty faced: Expected goals he faced per 60 minutes: how dangerous the shots were. A style number, not graded. How: Our xG on unblocked shots faced ÷ time on ice × 60. Style number, not graded.
SA/60Shots faced per 60: Shots on goal faced per 60 minutes. A style number. How: NHL shots against ÷ time on ice × 60. Style number, not graded.
Goalie roles: Starter Started 50+ games.
Workhorse Tandem Started 35–49 games.
1B / Backup Started fewer than 35 games.

Model verdicts

Sabres Cup odds1.4% · #13 of 32

Season by season · regular season

Alex Lyon's stats

Season	Team	GP	GS	W	L	OTL	SV%	GAA	SO	SA	GSAx
2025-26	BUF	36	34	20	10	4	.907	2.77	3	979	+9.3
2024-25	DET	30	26	14	9	1	.896	2.81	1	705	−1.1

Hover, focus or tap a column name to see what it means. Traded players: combined line. SH% and FO% shown as 12.5 = 12.5%.

What do these stats mean?

GP: Games played
GS: Games started
W: Wins
L: Regulation losses
OTL: Overtime and shootout losses
SV%: Save percentage: saves ÷ shots on goal
GAA: Goals against per 60 minutes
SO: Shutouts
SA: Shots against
GSAx: Goals saved above expected (Spreadsheet Sports xG): expected goals faced minus goals allowed. Graded seasons only.

Box score via the NHL's public stats. GSAx from Spreadsheet Sports expected goals.

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