MVP Tracker · 2026-27

Who wins
the 2027 MVP?

A preseason model trained on every MVP vote since 1985. It projects each star's season, scores him the way voters actually vote, then plays the season out 10,000 times.

Locked Oct 14, 2026Backtest 1985–2026Graded June 2027
Chance to win MVPFinal model

Tap a name to dig in. Assumes every candidate reaches the 65-game minimum. Injuries are the biggest risk to any pick.

Watch the model get built, version by version, including the ideas that failed.

Dig deeper

Look up any player

Every projected starter in the league is in the model. See his odds, why the model likes him (or doesn't) and how each factor moved him.

How the lead changed

One factor at a time

The favourite changed hands almost every time a new piece of voter behaviour went in. Tap through the steps.

Backtest

Would it have worked?

Each season predicted using only what was known that October. No peeking.

Method

What's inside

Project the season

Last three seasons weighted 3-2-1 with an age curve: impact, points, rebounds + assists, games.

Score it like a voter

Voters reward all-around stars, the best player on a top seed and win shares. They also remember last year.

Voter fatigue

Nobody wins three in a row anymore, and nobody 31+ has won since Nash. Both are in the model.

Last year's Finals

Stars from last season's Finals teams get a ×1.3 bump. It was the one late idea that held up in the backtest.

Simulate 10,000 seasons

Team records and stat lines vary in every run, and the model counts how often each player wins.

Tested & rejected

Ideas that failed

  • Extra credit for the scoring champ, triple-doubles, advanced-stat leaders or the best record
  • Punishing injury history, boosting young "breakout" candidates
  • Vegas win totals, Vegas MVP odds, one giant model that learns everything: all worse
  • Other voter fatigue: back-to-back, chasing a 4th, two of the last three
  • How well a player played last postseason (scoring, plus-minus): sharper odds, fewer winners
  • Blocks, steals and DPOY votes (defensive win shares did help)

The model's blind spot: leaps. Rose in 2011, Curry in 2015, Giannis in 2019 and Jokić in 2021 all came out of nowhere.

Every player

All 123 players in the model

Victor Wembanyama30.8%Nikola Jokić23.1%Shai Gilgeous-Alexander17.2%Luka Dončić16.6%Cade Cunningham5.3%Jaylen Brown3.5%Jayson Tatum1.7%Giannis Antetokounmpo0.6%Donovan Mitchell0.2%Alperen Şengün0.2%Anthony Edwards0.1%Joel Embiid0.1%Jalen Brunson<0.1%Kawhi Leonard<0.1%Tyrese Maxey<0.1%Jalen Johnson<0.1%James Harden<0.1%LaMelo Ball<0.1%Karl-Anthony Towns<0.1%Kevin Durant<0.1%Damian Lillard<0.1%Devin Booker<0.1%Tyrese Haliburton<0.1%Evan Mobley<0.1%Scottie Barnes<0.1%Stephen Curry<0.1%Jalen Williams<0.1%LeBron James<0.1%Kyrie Irving<0.1%Cooper Flagg<0.1%Paolo Banchero<0.1%De'Aaron Fox<0.1%Ja Morant<0.1%Brandon Miller<0.1%Domantas Sabonis<0.1%Chet Holmgren<0.1%Zion Williamson<0.1%Kon Knueppel<0.1%Amen Thompson<0.1%Anthony Davis<0.1%Jimmy Butler<0.1%Jarrett Allen<0.1%Josh Giddey<0.1%Deni Avdija<0.1%Franz Wagner<0.1%Jamal Murray<0.1%Derrick White<0.1%Tyler Herro<0.1%Payton Pritchard<0.1%Immanuel Quickley<0.1%Trey Murphy III<0.1%Dyson Daniels<0.1%Desmond Bane<0.1%Walker Kessler<0.1%Bam Adebayo<0.1%Austin Reaves<0.1%Josh Hart<0.1%Lauri Markkanen<0.1%Fred VanVleet<0.1%Darius Garland<0.1%Ivica Zubac<0.1%Trae Young<0.1%Onyeka Okongwu<0.1%Michael Porter Jr.<0.1%Donte DiVincenzo<0.1%OG Anunoby<0.1%Miles Bridges<0.1%Jaren Jackson Jr.<0.1%Aaron Gordon<0.1%Stephon Castle<0.1%Mikal Bridges<0.1%Ryan Rollins<0.1%Julius Randle<0.1%Grayson Allen<0.1%VJ Edgecombe<0.1%Nickeil Alexander-Walker<0.1%Jalen Green<0.1%Cameron Johnson<0.1%RJ Barrett<0.1%Pascal Siakam<0.1%Brandon Ingram<0.1%Devin Vassell<0.1%Jabari Smith Jr.<0.1%Rudy Gobert<0.1%Dejounte Murray<0.1%Anfernee Simons<0.1%Ayo Dosunmu<0.1%Norman Powell<0.1%Andrew Wiggins<0.1%Nikola Vučević<0.1%Christian Braun<0.1%Jaden McDaniels<0.1%Jrue Holiday<0.1%Saddiq Bey<0.1%Paul George<0.1%John Collins<0.1%Tobias Harris<0.1%Myles Turner<0.1%Keyonte George<0.1%Deandre Ayton<0.1%Shaedon Sharpe<0.1%Toumani Camara<0.1%Coby White<0.1%Zach LaVine<0.1%Jerami Grant<0.1%Andrew Nembhard<0.1%Keegan Murray<0.1%DeMar DeRozan<0.1%P.J. Washington<0.1%Rui Hachimura<0.1%CJ McCollum<0.1%Draymond Green<0.1%Bennedict Mathurin<0.1%Herbert Jones<0.1%Bilal Coulibaly<0.1%Bradley Beal<0.1%Kelly Oubre Jr.<0.1%Dillon Brooks<0.1%Bez Mbeng<0.1%Julian Reese<0.1%Kyle Kuzma<0.1%Bub Carrington<0.1%Kennedy Chandler<0.1%
The newsletter

The numbers that didn't make the video

Extra charts, cut segments and tracker updates between videos. Free.

▶  Subscribe on YouTube