10,000
seasons.
Every game, every play-in and every playoff series of 2026-27, simulated ten thousand times. Here's how often each team ends up holding the trophy.
Look up any team
See what's driving each team's odds: last season, roster moves, playoff experience, the rotation the model expects and who they'd most likely meet in the Finals.
Full table
Click a column to sort.
Would it have worked?
Leave-one-season-out: each season was predicted by a model that never saw it.
How a season is simulated
Project every team
Last season's net rating, adjusted for roster changes by each player's minutes and impact, plus playoff experience.
Play the real schedule
All 1,230 games. Each game's win chance comes from the rating gap plus about 2 points of home court.
Add October uncertainty
Every simulated season gives each team a random shake, because nobody knows exactly how good a team is before tip-off.
Play-in & playoffs
Real seeding rules, best-of-seven series with 2-2-1-1-1 home court. Then repeat 10,000 times.
Ideas that failed
- Aging and health discounts
- Rings already won
- Roster continuity
- Two-year net rating
- Coaching experience
- Defense-specific ratings
Each made the backtest worse or no better, so none of them made the final model.