Who wins
Sixth Man of the Year?
Every bench candidate's 2026-27 season simulated 10,000 times from what's known on opening night: who plays well, who actually comes off the bench, and how the voters behave.
Watch every version get built, the lab, and the countdown. Open on YouTube →
Dylan Harper, Spurs. DraftKings has him 3rd at +800 (about 11%).
Seasons since 1985 where the model's favourite won, using only opening-night information. The real winner was in its top three in 9 seasons.
More winners than the preseason betting favourite since 2018: 3 to 2. Small sample, and Vegas had more top-3 hits.
Ajay Mitchell is +600 at DraftKings. The model has him 8th.
Every player's chance
Share of 10,000 simulated seasons each player won. The two Spurs in the top 3 add up to about a 35% chance the award goes to San Antonio. DraftKings odds as of Oct 17, 2026 (via SI); "Implied" is the chance those odds suggest. Search a name or tap a column to sort.
Nobody predicts this award
You have to guess who plays well and who comes off the bench, and coaches change rotations all the time. The last three winners were long shots in October: Naz Reid (+5000), Payton Pritchard (+5000), Keldon Johnson (+6000).
Five versions
Each version is backtested: it goes back to every season from 1985 to 2026, sees only what was known on opening night, and we check how often its favourite actually won. Like old exams with the answers covered up.
More games off the bench than started
That's the only eligibility rule. There's no 65-game rule for this award, so the model's job is to guess the role as much as the stats.
11 / 42 even with the answers
Given every team's real final record, something nobody knows in October, a preseason model still only picked 11 winners. The award is decided during the season.
The 20-game version
A version that waits for the first 20 games picked 12 winners over 37 seasons, against 6 for the preseason model. It runs around December 1.
How Harper got to the top
The 2027 top 3 as each surviving idea is switched on. Playoff impact is the one that flipped it from Keldon Johnson to Dylan Harper.
Every Sixth Man since 1985
Where the final model ranked each winner before the season. Green: the favourite won (7). Yellow: 2nd or 3rd (2). "Not ranked" means the model gave him almost no chance.
Did the favourite win?
Preseason odds only go back to 2017-18, so this is 9 seasons. The model's favourite won 3, the Vegas favourite 2, and the model gave the real winner 8.3% on average vs Vegas's 5.5%. To be fair: Vegas had the winner in its top three 5 times, the model only 3. Neither favourite has won since 2020-21, and the last three winners were 50-to-1 or longer.