Who wins
Rookie of the Year?
Every rookie's 2026-27 season projected from what's known on opening night, handed to a voter model trained on 37 years of real ballots, and played out 10,000 times.
Watch every version of the model get built, and the countdown.
AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 pick. Vegas has him 4th at +450.
Rookie classes since 1990 where the model's favourite won, using only opening-night information. The real winner was in its top 3 28 times.
More winners than the preseason betting favourite since 2008: 10 to 7.
Cameron Boozer is +260 in the market (odds as of 2026-10-18). The model has him 5th.
Every rookie's chance
Win share of 10,000 simulated seasons, with each rookie's projected season. Preseason minutes and being healthy on opening night are the two things the model leans on most. Search a name or tap a column to sort.
Five versions
Opening-night info only
Every version is backtested on every rookie class since 1990 using only what was known before the season: draft slot, college numbers, teammates, last season's record, preseason minutes, health.
21 fell back to 19
Searching for extra factors got the backtest to 21. Hiding one season at a time and predicting it blind brought it back to 19, so the extras were luck and were thrown out.
31 / 37 with hindsight
Shown a rookie's real full season, the voter model names the actual winner 31 times out of 37. Before the season, the stats have to be projected, which is where the 10,000 simulations come in.
Every Rookie of the Year since 1990
Where the final model ranked each winner before his rookie season. Ties (1995, 2000) count as one season.
Did the favourite win?
Preseason betting favourite vs the model's favourite, every season with preseason odds (2008-2026). Vegas 7, model 10.