The experts vs
the data.
Every player in the experts' top 20, against what 618 NHL skaters actually did on the ice over the last two seasons. The biggest gap wins.
How Crosby fell
Crosby's data rank at each version of the model. The experts have him 16.8 on average.
Every team's most overrated
The player on each roster the experts rank furthest above the data. Only players on at least one expert list count.
Expert rank vs data rank
The experts' top 30. Expert rank = average across the four lists. Only the top 20 are eligible for most overrated.
How the model works
V1 · Points
Points per game, compared within position (forwards vs forwards, defencemen vs defencemen).
V2 · Chances
Adds the chances a player creates for himself: individual expected goals and game score.
V3 · On the ice
Adds 5-on-5 expected-goal differential with the player on the ice vs on the bench.
V4 · Defence
Adds chances against with him on vs off the ice. 2025-26 counts double; 35+ games last season to qualify.
V5 · Deployment
Adjusts for who a player plays against and where his shifts start, from the shift charts of 2,624 NHL games.
Who can be overrated
A player has to be in the experts' top 20 in the whole league, using the average of ESPN, The Hockey News, TSN and NHL Network's preseason lists.
Gap = data rank minus expert rank. A big gap means the experts like him much more than the data does.
Players marked “young” are 21 or younger or had under 40 games in 2024-25, so their expert rank partly projects growth. Leaving them out doesn't change the top 3. Goalies are not included.